The Unified Sea Level Rise Projection: The Shared Numbers Behind Seawall Planning in Southeast Florida

Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties plan for rising water using one shared set of numbers, the Unified Sea Level Rise Projection produced by the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact. The 2019 edition is still the operative projection after a 2024 review, and local design standards draw from it. This post explains the projection, the planning horizons, and what the numbers mean for a seawall decision today.

One projection, four counties

The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact is a partnership of the four southeast Florida counties, and its Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection gives local governments a single set of values to plan with. The current edition is the 2019 update, the third edition of the projection.

The values are measured relative to 2000 mean sea level at Key West, so they describe an amount of rise on top of the water level that today's tide tables already assume. The Compact publishes the projection and its supporting documents on its website.

Compact: Regionally unified sea level rise projection

The planning numbers

The 2019 projection puts sea level rise for the region at roughly 10 to 17 inches by 2040, about 21 to 54 inches by 2070, and about 40 to 92 inches by 2100 under the range of planning curves. The NOAA high curve runs higher than the middle of that range for later decades.

These are planning tools, not predictions of a single outcome. Governments build roads, seawalls, and drainage to one of the curves, and the choice of curve is part of the public record for each project.

The 2024 review kept the 2019 values

In late 2024 the Compact reviewed the 2019 projection against the NOAA 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report and issued a Statement of Continued Use. That means the 2019 values remain the operative planning numbers for the region.

The statement matters to owners because it means the planning standard did not shift under them. The elevation a county or city asks for today is still being set against the same curves, which makes it easier to compare one local standard with another.

The statement is available from the Compact's website alongside the projection document and the regular climate indicators update.

Compact: 2024 Statement of Continued Use (PDF)

What the numbers mean for your seawall

A concrete seawall built today is usually designed to last several decades, which places its working life well inside the 2040 and 2070 horizons. That is why counties and cities have been raising minimum seawall elevations and asking for stronger wall designs in waterfront redevelopment.

For an owner planning a new wall or a major repair, the practical takeaway is to discuss design elevation with an engineer against current local standards rather than against the neighbor's wall. The documented height of the wall, like a documented water depth, becomes part of the property's file for insurance, appraisal, and resale.

Getting your waterway assessed

A qualified crew can measure your water depth at mean low tide in a free site consultation and show you where the wall, the dock, and the bottom stand today, including whether toe scour or sediment has reached the point of planning maintenance work.

To request free resources about dredging, call (561) 299-1323 or email slselleck@gmail.com. Tell us about your dock, slip, or waterway and we will help you understand what it needs.

This content was created with AI assistance and reviewed for fair housing compliance.

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