Sea Level Rise Projections for Broward and Palm Beach: What the Numbers Mean for Owners

The seawall elevation standards, flood rules, and permitting guidance that waterfront owners in Broward and Palm Beach counties deal with are built on sea level rise projections. Understanding where those numbers come from makes the rules easier to plan around.

This article explains the projections used in Southeast Florida, what they say, and what they mean for seawalls, docks, and slips.

The guidance used across Southeast Florida is the regionally unified sea level rise projection from the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, last updated in 2019. Broward and Palm Beach counties, along with Miami-Dade and Monroe, use the same unified curve so regional planning stays consistent.

The projection is referenced to 2000 mean sea level at Key West, Florida, and covers planning horizons out to 2120.

Under the Compact's unified projection, sea level is projected to rise 10 to 17 inches by 2040, 21 to 54 inches by 2070, and roughly 40 to 92 inches by 2100, with the upper curve exceeding 136 inches on the long planning horizon to 2120.

The range reflects uncertainty: the low end assumes slower rise, the high end faster. Planners, builders, and regulators design against the range, which is why standards call for walls that can be raised over time.

Higher water levels mean more pressure on seawalls and more frequent tidal flooding of low walls. That is why Broward's standards require new walls, replacements, and major repairs to meet higher elevations, with a 4 feet NAVD88 minimum for applications before January 1, 2035 and a 5 feet by 2050 design, and why Fort Lauderdale already requires 5 feet for new and replaced walls.

For an existing wall, the practical takeaway is simple: if a repair touches more than half of the wall, the whole wall may need to be raised to the current standard. Planning repairs early keeps that decision in your hands.

Sea level rise raises mean water levels, which can improve clearance at the dock in some places, but it also changes tidal ranges, currents, and sediment movement. The honest test of a slip remains depth at mean low tide, measured, not assumed.

Higher water is not a substitute for dredging. Sediment keeps building up, and a slip that was deep at last year's high tide can still be shallow at this year's low tide.

The projections feed flood maps, elevation standards, and permit guidance at the county and city level. Because the numbers are reviewed and updated periodically, the rules can change, and local city rules can differ from county guidance.

Before starting any waterfront work, verify the current requirements for your specific property with the local building department or a licensed professional.

For owners planning new walls, dock work, or dredging, the practical steps are the same: verify the current elevation standard for your site, measure your water depth at mean low tide, and start the permitting process early.

A qualified waterfront contractor who handles permits and documents before and after depths gives you a record you can keep for appraisals, buyers, and future planning.

To request free resources about dredging, call (561) 299-1323 or email slselleck@gmail.com. Tell us about your dock, slip, or waterway and we will help you understand what it needs.