Sea Level Rise Projections for South Florida: What the Numbers Mean for Waterfront Owners

NOAA and the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact publish the projections planners and insurers use. Here is what the current numbers say and how they affect docks, seawalls, and water depth.

The projections that guide planning

The most current federal sea level rise projections come from the NOAA-led 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report. Nationally, NOAA projects roughly 10 to 12 inches of rise along U.S. coastlines by 2050 relative to 2020, about equal to the rise measured over the previous century.

For local planning, Southeast Florida relies on the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact's Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection, which was reviewed against the NOAA 2022 report in late 2024.

NOAA: Sea level rise by 2050

The regional range

The Compact's unified projection for Southeast Florida is 21 to 54 inches by 2070. Observed sea level in the region is currently rising at roughly 9 to 13 inches per century, per the Compact's climate indicators.

These are planning ranges, not a single prediction, and they are updated over time. They feed the flood maps, insurance models, and permitting rules that waterfront owners work with.

Southeast Florida Climate Compact: Unified projection

What higher water means for your seawall

Higher average water levels mean more days when water stands at or near the top of a low wall, more frequent coastal flooding during king tides and storms, and more pressure on walls built to older elevations.

This is why current seawall standards in the region call for higher elevations for new walls, replacements, and major repairs. A wall that barely held back water a decade ago is closer to its limit now.

What it means for water depth and access

As sea level rises, water levels and tidal range shift, which can change how much depth a slip has at low tide and how much clearance sits under fixed bridges. Higher water can also change how sediment settles in canals.

Measuring depth at mean low tide remains the reliable test of whether your slip works, whatever the projections say. The number that matters for your boat is the depth at the lowest tide you will see.

Why owners plan early

Sea level projections inform insurance, flood zone maps, and permitting rules, all of which change over time. A property's flood zone and elevation certificate affect recurring costs and what can be built at the water's edge.

Planning a seawall repair or a dredging project while the rules are clear and the budget is yours to set is simpler than reacting to a failure or a rule change.

Getting help with your project

To request free resources about dredging, call (561) 299-1323 or email slselleck@gmail.com. Tell us about your dock, slip, or waterway and we will help you understand what it needs.

This content was created with AI assistance and reviewed for fair housing compliance.

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